Posted by
Buster Foghorn on Monday, November 27, 2006 2:46:14 PM
In an editorial: “Neocons' abandon Iraq war at White House front door,” USA Today blames any failure in Iraq on the “neocons.” Some of the neocon failures were the result of:
· Disbanding the Iraqi army,
· The decision to go war itself, a naive and arrogant exercise in wishful thinking that the nation can't afford to repeat,
· Using weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for an imminent threat to U.S. security,
· Not planning and waging the war properly by implementing the Powell Doctrine and listening to Secretary Powell. Unfortunately, in Iraq, the Powell Doctrine took a back seat to neoconservative fantasies.
First, regarding the alleged disbanding of the Iraqi Army as a mistake: L. Paul Bremmer, the U.S. administrator in Iraq, calls this argument a myth that refuses to die since the Iraqi army disintegrated during our invasion. There was never any army to disband and significant concerns were raised by the Shia and other groups about the risks of trying to recreate Saddam’s Sunni senior officer corps. In fact, Mr. Bremmer states this was one decision “we got right.”
Second, the mistake was going to war at all and especially on a pretext of weapons of mass destruction. The Bush Administration, however, prior to Secretary Powell’s appearance at the UN, consistently argued multiple rationales for action against Saddam including his frequent contacts with terrorists; violations of terms agreed to at the end of Gulf War I; daily firing on military aircraft operating in “No Fly Zones,” and human rights abuses. Media and critics discarded all the other valid rationales for action only after the UN appearance.
Since then all criticism about Iraq has been reduced to the formula no WMD equals a mistake although other rationales were persuasive. Senator Lieberman, for example, suggested that the violations of the agreement ending Gulf War I were a sufficient rationale for action. Failure to take action was a lesson learned from World War II after the Allies delayed acting against Hitler in the early 1930s when he violated Treaty Terms ending World War I. Another example, Prime Minister Blair based his support on removing Saddam on humanitarian grounds and human rights abuses similar to our rationale for action in Kosovo. Consider that Saddam is currently on trial for atrocities against the Kurds for abuses during less than a twelve-month period which resulted in over 150,000 Kurdish dead. Even at this past month’s death rate of 3,000 Iraqis, it would take over 4 years to match the devastation Saddam inflicted on the Kurds in just ten months.
Furthermore, the problem was that Iraq was not a transparent country; the absence of WMD places the focus in the wrong place. Saddam created the lack of transparency when he ejected or hid material from the weapons inspectors? Vice President Cheney was correct when he argued under these circumstances the burden of proof is on Saddam to allay the concerns of the world community.
Finally, there is the repeated assertion that the big mistake was going “too light” and not listening to military army officers such as Colin Powell about the need for a larger force. If Secretary Powell was right about the size of the force required, then what to make of the recent testimony that a large force and footprint fails to shift the burden to Iraqis to take responsibility? Also, in Supreme Command: Soldiers, Statesman, and Leadership in Wartime, Eliot Cohen states that one of the lessons from Vietnam was the size of our force was so large that the burden never shifted to the ARVN forces (Republic of Vietnam) to clean up the corruption and build a viable military force.
Additionally, assuming General Powell was right about the size of the force required, what about his other advice: if you break it you own it; his opposition to Pentagon efforts to create an out-of-country Iraqi force under Ahmad Chalabi so as to put an Iraqi face and group in charge immediately after the fall of Saddam; and seeking UN approval. This “other advice” raises numerous “known unknowns” and makes it exceedingly difficult and incredibly facile to place the blame at the “neocons” doorstep for all conceived errors on Iraq.
First, General Powell repeatedly asserted if you break it you own. Of course, that suggests if we remove Saddam then we are responsible for Iraq. However, in America Alone, Mark Steyn, points to the difference between how we have handled “undesirable” leaders in Mexico in the past by removing them versus the British approach in India which was to stay for as long as it took to create a country that adhered to British law. The Pentagon (and neocons) planned to assist Chalabi and his group of ex-patriots to seize control in Iraq. Arguably, this was not a nation building strategy and approximates a “Mexico approach” (to use Mark Steyn’s formulation) rather than a British approach as in India. Unfortunately perhaps, (our known unknown), the State Department prevailed and “the postwar plan failed to provide for the Iraqis themselves to take control as soon as possible.” Was the L. Paul Bremmer time the best method of transition or did it ensure we would be forced to do a British version of India?
And what about the wisdom of General Powell’s advice to seek another UN resolution on Iraq, despite the fact that there were more than a dozen violations? In the end, the French and Russians never lived up to any commitments they made with the last approved resolution and the time lost resulted in multiple issues that raise further known unknowns. For example, Oriana Fallaci has argued that a mistake in dealing with Iraq was the significant delay after 9/11. She argued that world opinion supported U.S. action after 9/11 and the sooner we acted against Saddam the more world support we would have. Perhaps, the even more significant “error” in pursuing further UN action was the loss of Turkey as a means of transit for our forces into Iraq. U.S. forces were positioned to enter Northern Iraq and engage the opposition north of Baghdad. However, as a result of our delays and an election, the RPK party gained significant representation and opposed our use of a corridor through Turkey. We were therefore forced to conduct an invasion solely from the South and our troops billeted in Turkey were required to board ships and travel to Iraq by another route. We never did engage the resistance in the North since our forces stopped at Baghdad. So much for waiting to make another useless trip to the UN.
Finally, much is made by USA Today and others about our purported failure to heed the lessons of Vietnam – the size of force and the folly of fighting a foreign war. Winston Churchill said the tragedy of World War I was that its lessons were thrown away when Europe refused to respond to Hitler’s aggression. Change in Iraq was inevitable. Consider the “unknown unknowns” involved in all the criticism of the President’s decision to remove Saddam from Iraq. What would an Iraq look like today with Saddam still in charge? What would he be doing with his push to create WMD, his contacts with terrorists, and his plans to create a caliphate? Vietnam is the wrong model. The real tragedy of Iraq would be to forget the lessons of World War II.